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Michael Totten: The Syrian Track: Much ado about Nothing |
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Friday, 02 May 2008 |
By Tony Badran (cross-posted at Across the Bay)
Jonathan Spyer has penned what is by far the most sober analysis of the current soap opera involving Turkey, Syria and Israel.
Put briefly, Spyer explains why this is a dead end because the main objective of Syrian track enthusiasts in Israel — taking Syria out of the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas nexus — is a fantasy.
But Spyer's insight lies in his explanation as to why this is the case. As some of you might know, this is something I've discussed at length on my blog. The main deficiency in the prevailing ignorant punditry on the subject is that it sets out from two faulty premises: 1- that the motivating force for Syria's behavior, including its alliance with Iran, is grievance — i.e. it's reactive. And 2- therefore the solution lies in finding the right price to settle that grievance.
Spyer's argument is that Syria has its own objectives and its own role conception — what EU MP Jana Hybaskova correctly dubbed “an over-exaggerated” self-image — and that is the motivation behind its alliance. Or, as Maher Assad tool Samir Taqi put it, “It is naïve to think Syria would behave foolishly and abandon its strategic alliances with Iran and Hizbullah, which are not limited solely to the Israeli-Arab conflict but also touch on topical geopolitical issues. These strategic associations are for the long term.” (Emphasis mine.)
In other words, as many of us have been saying for the longest time, the Middle East (and regime interests and ambitions) doesn't revolve around the “peace process” — except of course for the Western “peace processors.” Spyer explains what those “geopolitical issues” are, and how they are directly related to the regime's nature as well as its limited — all violent — assets which “allow it to punch above its weight in the region”:
Syria lacks the size of Egypt and the resources of Saudi Arabia. But it has been able to project power and influence in the region because of its willingness to support radicalism, act as a disruptive force and thus create a situation in which it cannot be ignored. Thus, Damascus backs a host of Palestinian groups opposed to a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Israel - including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, PFLP-GC and others. Syria offered significant support to the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. And most importantread
read full story from Michael Totten
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